System Cycles

Ross Woods

These cycles describe what happens to all sorts of systems and innovations. They also describe what happens to many scientific theories.

Cycle One

Stage 1. Somebody has a really good idea for how the whole system will work.

Stage 2. It gets put into a very successful small pilot project.

Stage 3. It then becomes a very effective simple system that works well in the limited environment for which it was designed. It is the "next big thing."

Stage 4. People notice how it could be improved, how it could be more sophisticated, and how it could be used in a wider variety of situations.

Stage 5. It become more difficult to work-- more rules, more exceptions, more details that need mastering for it to work. It needs more training to use it and more maintenance to keep it working.

Stage 6. Some users start calling for change, claiming that the system "doesn't work." They say it's too cumbersome and complex. Besides, they see limitations of the basic idea and point to cases where it doesn't work, although perhaps it was never intended to work in those situations. They want "a good, simple answer that really works".

Stage 7. Then somebody has another really good simple idea for how the whole system will work. (Start the cycle again).

 

Cycle Two

Stage 1. Somebody has a really good idea for how the whole system will work.

Stage 2. It gets put into a very successful small pilot project.

Stage 3. It then becomes a very effective simple system that works well in the limited environment for which it was designed. It is the "next big thing."

Stage 4. People notice how it could be improved, how it could be more sophisticated, and how it could be used in a wider variety of situations.

Stage 5. It become more difficult to work—more rules, more exceptions, more details that need mastering for it to work. It needs more training to use it and more maintenance to keep it working. It is, however, clearly still effective for what it is intended to do.

Stage 6. People tweak the system to create tailor-made variations for a variety of different purposes.

Stage 7. Then somebody has another really good idea for how the whole system will work.

Stage 8. The original idea is considered a technique that is best in some circumstances, but never the only possible one. Its proponents include it in their range of techniques, like putting it into a toolkit, and it stays in use.